Mortgage rates have a quiet week as markets digest Fed comments, Trump’s directive

30-year fixed rates held at 7.38%, while jumbo fell to 7.62% and FHA to 7.16%, as 77% of traders expect a December hike by the Fed.

Neil Pierson · HousingWire

Mortgage rate movement was largely flat in the past week, with the downward momentum of previous weeks cooling off even as more potential homebuyers have been incentivized to seek financing.

At HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center on Tuesday, rates for 30-year loans averaged 7.38% — the same as one week ago. Rates for 30-year jumbo loans averaged 7.62%, down 7 bps in a week, while 30-year rates for Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans stood at 7.16%, down 8 bps.

The small declines in rates come a week after the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at a range of 3.75% of 4% in a widely expected decision. But after policymakers hiked rates in September, further increases are anticipated, with the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showing that 77% of interest rate traders predict a 25-basis-point increase in December.

More details from the Fed

HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami wrote this week that tighter monetary policy “has created financial pain for some AI companies.” With the Fed focusing on the inflationary aspects of AI and associated debt-financing issues, the 10-year Treasury yield has been dropping, which has placed downward pressure on mortgage rates.

Hector Amendola, president of Las Vegas-based mortgage lender SimplyPMG, told HousingWire in an interview that he believes a December hike is already baked into current rates and that drastic movement, up or down, is unlikely to happen for the rest of this year.

“It’s kind of been par for the course now for a while, that rates are continuing to rise based on the expectation that the Fed will go up a little bit more until there’s a way to figure out how to tame inflation a little bit,” Amendola said.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced last week that the central bank would be shifting to fewer policy votes in each of the next two years. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) currently meets eight times a year, with a vote scheduled after each, but the number of votes will be reduced to seven in 2027 and potentially to six in 2028.

The move caught Amendola’s eye.

“I think it puts a little bit more weight on each of the meetings,” he said. “I also think it’s interesting, because as Warsh kicks over, you’re kind of wondering if it’ll be like, ‘Let’s break everything and see what happens and figure it out later,’ or are we going to continue to really look at the data and do what the data tells us?

“I think what I’ve seen so far is, it’s still a wait-and-see approach. Let’s see what the data says, and that’s kind of why I think this particular decision that came out [last week] was expected, because the data is saying, ‘Slow down.’”

Reaction to Trump’s executive order

Last month, President Donald Trump signed an executive order that targets lower costs in multiple areas of housing finance. These include proactive mortgage insurance cancellations for conventional loan servicers, an expanded title waiver program through the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), reduced rates on some government-backed loans and the creation of a manufactured housing task force.

Mat Ishbia, president and CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), said this week in his monthly “3 Points” video that “housing affordability continues to be front and center in Washington D.C. There’s a real focus right now on finding ways to lower the cost of homeownership, reduce friction in the mortgage process and make financing more accessible.”

He pointed specifically to the proposal to make the title insurance waiver pilot a permanent program, saying that prior waivers on some low-risk refinances have been “saving consumers thousands of dollars.”

“Some of these ideas will help; some of them won’t help,” Ishbia said of the executive order. “We’ll see how it all shakes out. But I think these are good things they’re looking at doing.”

Amendola said his company has “always been big proponents” of waiving title insurance on refi transactions with loan-to-value ratios below 80%. “Like, what are we really doing? It’s the same consumer. You know, all that stuff is still coming up,” he remarked.

He also said that allowing servicers of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans to help borrowers cancel their mortgage insurance premiums when they reach the statutory threshold “is a bigger deal than people think.” U.S. Mortgage Insurers have expressed their support for the move, while some analysts label it as “fairly benign” for the financial performance of mortgage insurers.

“That’s extra revenue that they’re making right now that they, honestly, probably shouldn’t be making — and suddenly they’re going to have an impact on their end,” Amendola said. “But it’s going to be really good for the homeowner to free up some of that cash that can then turn into something else for them.”