Mortgage Rates Face Upward Pressure | Today, July 21, 2026 | Mortgage Rates, Home Loan Guides & Expert Insights | The Mortgage Reports

Today’s mortgage rates

The 10-year Treasury yield came in at 4.604% Tuesday, up 3.8 basis points from 4.566%, a meaningful move that points to fresh upward pressure on mortgage rates. That market signal contrasted with mixed published mortgage-rate coverage, with one headline saying rates were “inching lower” and another saying refinance rates “advance higher,” while Freddie Mac’s 30-year survey stood at 6.55%. For borrowers, that means any slight easing in lender quotes could prove limited or short-lived if bond-market pressure holds.

The broader tone was defensive: the Dow fell 0.59%, the S&P 500 fell 0.19%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.05%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index came in at 36.9, in fear territory. Gold rose $50 to $4,065 an ounce and WTI crude climbed $2.10 to $84.30 a barrel, a mix that kept rate-sensitive markets on edge.

Next up, borrowers should watch Wednesday’s MBA Mortgage Applications report at 7:00 a.m. ET and the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m., followed by Jobless Claims on Thursday, the Fed’s balance sheet update later that day, and New Home Sales on Friday. Those reports could help determine whether today’s Treasury jump turns into a broader rise in mortgage pricing.

Although rates have elevated from recent lows, see if refinancing makes sense or tapping home equity is prudent. For home buyers, explore expert advice for 2026 and check if you qualify for financial assistance programs or more flexible loan options.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

30-year fixed rate mortgage

At the time this was published, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.609%.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) hit a record weekly low of 2.65% on Jan. 7, 2021, and a record weekly high of 8.89% on Dec. 16, 1994, according to Freddie Mac.

A 30-year FRM gives borrowers an affordable option but you pay more interest over the life of the loan compared to shorter mortgages.

15-year fixed rate mortgage

Today, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate went to 5.992%.

The average 15-year FRM hit a record weekly low of 2.1% on July 29, 2021, and a record weekly high of 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981, according to Freddie Mac.

The 15-year FRM offers borrowers a briefer term with less accrued interest, but the monthly payments will be much higher.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage

This morning’s 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 6.317%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically have lower initial interest rates compared to fixed loans. Once that initial period ends, the interest rate adjusts to the current market conditions. In this case, the initial period is five years and the adjustments are up to once every year. Homeowners with shorter term lending plans tend to see these as advantageous.

What experts are expecting

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

“I expect rates to stay in a relatively similar range as where they ended in March, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range. Current global uncertainty and inflation data will keep volatility in play. Also any rate cuts at all by the Fed may be in jeopardy now so that will keep markets frozen some. Unless we get a clear cooling signal from the Fed, don’t expect a drop. The 30-year fixed should average around 6.25% with the 15 year fixed at 5.875%“

Any specific rate figures above reflect this expert’s personal opinion and forecast. They are illustrative only, are not an offer or commitment to lend, and are not an advertised rate. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, property and other factors, and will vary by lender.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play as this article was published. The data mostly compares to roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session.

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.604% from 4.566% (Bad for mortgage rates). Mortgage rates often follow these Treasury bond yields.
• Major stock indexes dropped this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors sell shares and move into bonds, bond purchases can push prices up and yields down, potentially easing mortgage rates.
• Oil prices increased to $84.3 from $82.2 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates.*)
• Gold prices increased to $4,065.0 from $4,015.00 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates.*)
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index decreased to 36.9 from 37.1 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Fear” suggests investors are seeking safety, supporting bond prices.

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil prices is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak for us to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might nudge upward or barely budge. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

What’s driving mortgage rates today?

This week

This week starts with a clearer market signal than the mortgage-rate headlines. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.604% Tuesday from 4.566%, a 3.8-basis-point move that points to upward pressure on mortgage pricing, even as consumer-facing coverage looked split. Google News results Tuesday included “Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Tuesday, July 21, 2026: Inching lower,” “Mortgage rates today, July 21, 2026,” and “Here Are Today’s Mortgage Refinance Rates: July 21, 2026 – Rates Advance Higher.” Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was last at 6.55%, according to FRED, but that weekly measure can lag day-to-day market moves.

Wednesday brings the first scheduled mortgage-market read with MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00 a.m. ET. That report won’t move rates by itself very often, but it shows whether borrowers are stepping in or backing off as financing costs shift. Later Wednesday, traders will be watching the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. ET. Energy matters because oil feeds inflation expectations, and WTI crude was already up to $84.3 per barrel Tuesday from $82.2. Gold also rose to $4,065.0 an ounce from $4,015.0, another sign investors were paying up for safety.

Thursday is the busiest day. Weekly Jobless Claims hits at 8:30 a.m. ET and usually has the best chance to move bond yields early in the session. A weaker labor reading can help rates if it pushes investors toward Treasurys; a lower-than-expected claims number can do the opposite. At 10:30 a.m. ET, the EIA Natural Gas Report lands, and at 4:30 p.m. ET the Fed releases its balance sheet update. That last report won’t always spark an immediate rate move, but it stays relevant because the size and direction of the Fed’s holdings tie into longer-term liquidity and bond-market demand. Google News was already surfacing “Tracker: The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Assets” and “Frank Ryan: The hidden cost of saving the economy,” a sign that Fed-related market themes are still in the mix.

Friday closes the week with New Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET. Housing data can matter more than usual when mortgage affordability is under pressure, since it offers a direct read on whether buyers are still absorbing current rates. The broader market tone Tuesday was cautious: the Dow fell 0.59%, the S&P 500 fell 0.19% and the Nasdaq fell 0.05%, while CNN’s Fear & Greed Index slipped to 36.9 from 37.1, still in fear territory. For borrowers, the main takeaway is simple: watch intraday rate sheets closely. The Treasury market is sending a firmer warning

Recent trends

Freddie Mac’s July 21 report put the weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average at 6.55%. Freddie’s data serves as a market barometer and trend tracker, but individual rates vary by lender and depend on personal financial profiles.

Expert forecasts for mortgage rates

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

Here are their quarterly rate forecasts for the next year.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie updated its forecast on March 10 and the MBA updated theirs on March 23.

Of course, given so many unknowables, these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy — due to the volatile nature of interest rates — hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Current mortgage rates methodology

We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.

🏠 Equal Housing Lender. The Mortgage Reports, NMLS #1019791. Verify our licensing at NMLS Consumer Access. We do business in accordance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and federal Fair Housing laws. This article is for editorial and informational purposes only and is not an offer or commitment to lend; rates and terms are illustrative and subject to change without notice.